Business cycle dating committee definition
In that cycle, as well, the dating of the trough relied primarily on output measures.
Q: Isn't a recession a period of diminished economic activity?
On the other hand, the unemployment rate often continues to rise after activity has reached its trough.
In this respect, the unemployment rate is a lagging indicator.
The committee places real Gross Domestic Income on an equal footing with real GDP; real GDI declined for six consecutive quarters in the recent recession.
The peak date at the end of 2007 coincided with the peak in employment.
We designated June 2009 as the trough, six months before the trough in employment, which is consistent with earlier trough dates in the NBER business-cycle chronology.
Q: Why doesn't the committee accept the two-quarter definition?
A: The committee's procedure for identifying turning points differs from the two-quarter rule in a number of ways.